Erman Sumirat, Sulaeman Rahman Nidar, Aldrin Herwany, Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono
Almost 38 % from Indonesian National Budget is spent heavily on economy and medical recoveries during Covid 19 Pandemic so government has reduced some spending including public housing project as part of infrastructure even though number of backlog is still higher. The possible solution to catch backlog is engaging private sectors to involve in the public housing project under the scheme of public private partnership (PPP). Nevertheless, some risks may expose to private sectors and it will have an impact to investment rate
The risk impact to the investment rate will be explored alongside the effect from capital structure and investment valuation. If capital structure, investment valuation and risk have simultaneously impact investment rate, the possible mitigation risk strategy must be designed in advance with the support from the government. Those parameters must be managed properly in order to attract public housing project under PPP scheme.
The research has used multiple regression with time series from 2009 until 2018, 10 years data with all samples taken from companies that listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) under the industry of property and construction. The independent variables consist of debt, debt to equity ratio, stock issuance, retained earnings, sales, opex, capex, discounted cash flow, sales volatility, material price volatility and operational risk volatility with IRR and ROE as dependent variables. The risks is measured by the concept adopted from Value at Risk which heavily counts on volatility as a quantitative method. The measurement of risk variables in other research has commonly used tools like analytic hierarchy process (AHP) while this study used risk volatility measurement with Value at Risk (VaR) tools. The research framework also align with risk return theory that accommodates risk factors into investment rate model simultaneously with capital structure and invesment valuation
The designed hypothesis was capital structure, investment valuation and risk impact investment rate for public housing simultaneously. The findings has showed that business risk negatively impact investment rate while most of capital structure variables as well as investment valuation positively impact investment rate. Those three main variables influence IRR almost 50 percent by adjusted R squared, higher than ROE, which is influenced by 31.5 % from variables of capital structure, investment valuation and risk. By the risk analysis based on multiple regressions, it can be concluded that sales volatility, as a business risk predictor must be prioritized rather than material price volatility and operational cost volatility. The companies must be managing debt not too over levered, securing sales and managing business risk by diversifying streams of revenues and involving government to support with incentives, support and subsidy to minimize business risk. All initiatives will be taken to meet the average required investment rate, i.e. target ROE by 10 % and IRR by 14% as found from historical data of 2009-2018.
Time period for this research only captured 10 years data from 2009 to 2018. Different and longer time frame may change the research findings. The next study can capture data which showed financial crisis like during 1997-1998 or property bubble/sluggish period, seeing the impact of those event as a risk phenomenon and analyzing the impact to investment rate in public housing project by conducting event study. Other methodology like mixed-method research to explore qualitative aspect could also enrich the findings for research improvement in the future.
The paper has a significant contribution to make a financial policy in PPP for Public Housing between government and private sectors, the target of ROE can be set by minimum 10 % with target IRR by 14%. Besides that private sectors can discuss with government for securing property sales by receiving government guarantee, diversifying revenue by doing mixed used buildings and asking Viability Gap Fund (VGF) if actual IRR and ROE is still below the target as a last resort. Those efforts can be taken as part of risk mitigation to reduce business risk volatility as measured by this study.